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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Dec 12 2018 3:53 am

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Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120057
SPC AC 120056

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z


Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening through tonight
across western Washington and northwest Oregon.

...Western WA/northwest OR...
Trends in satellite imagery and objective analyses indicated a
change in air mass will occur across western parts of WA/OR this
evening into tonight.  A cold front (now moving into far western WA)
will advance eastward, while cold low- to mid-tropospheric air
(500-mb temperatures at or below -30 C) spreads across the
post-frontal environment.  These cold midlevel temperatures are
associated with a Pacific shortwave trough/exit region of an
accompanying 100+ kt 500-mb jet shifting inland this forecast
period.  Lightning data from today through this outlook issuance
indicated sporadic thunderstorms within an area of post-frontal

Steepening lapse rates are already evident in northwest WA, given
the 00Z UIL sounding representing the leading edge of the
post-frontal environment, with buoyancy deep enough for charge
separation.  Sufficient destabilization, given steepening lapse
rates, will allow for low-topped cellular convection that spreads
inland to possibly produce isolated thunderstorms this evening into
tonight.  Weak instability/shear will preclude a severe-weather

..Peters.. 12/12/2018


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Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: and Rick Curly:

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